Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

287
AXPZ20 KNHC 022010
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N84W to 
a 1010 mb low at 09N131W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate 
and isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N-16N between
128W-137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring south of 10N east of 100W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring this morning over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 
2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, high pressure over the SW United States will 
support fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California through Tue 
and offshore Baja California through Wed night. Large, long- 
period NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro 
Tue night into Thu. New large NW swell will reach the same waters
beginning Fri night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 10N east of 100W. 
For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate by this evening. 
Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will continue for at least the next two days over 
all forecast waters from Nicaragua southward.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front has just entered our NW corner, extending from
29N40W to 31N139W. A weak 1023 mb high at 29N126W combined with 
lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only gentle to 
moderate trades across the forecast waters. North of 25N and west
of 135, there is NW swell of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft
in mixed swell. A broad 1011 mb low at 09N131W is producing 
fresh E winds and seas 6-7 ft in its northern semicircle.
For the forecast, the cold front will only reach down to 28N over
northern waters before dissipating on Wed. While no substantial
winds will occur with the front, large to very large NW swell
will continue moving across forceast waters with 8 ft seas
reaching 10N and 120W by Tue night. Elsewhere, environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of 
the broad low while it moves westward to west-northwestward
around 10-15 kt. Formation chance is low in the next two days,
but becomes high afterwards after the system moves into the
central North Pacific. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat combined NW
and SE swell should produce 8-9 ft seas along our southern 
border.