Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

097
AXNT20 KNHC 021627
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1623 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 11N26W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N40W and to 10N60W. Scattered 
to numerous moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 17N and
east of 30W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to
13N between 30W and 61W.  
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S.
and lower pressure south of the area is sustaining fresh to 
strong east winds over the NE Gulf. Seas with these winds are 4 to
7 ft. An upper-level trough continues to support scattered to 
numerous convection east of 84.5W. Elsewhere, mostly light to 
gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will maintain fresh to 
strong E winds and moderate seas in the NE Gulf through early Tue.
A cold front will reach along the Texas coast Tue afternoon, and 
move out over the NW Gulf Tue night into early Wed, followed by 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds. The front will weaken as it moves
slowly across the basin through Thu, then across Florida Thu 
night into Fri. In its wake, weak high pressure will settle in 
over the region through Fri night. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft continue across 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
seas of 2 to 4 ft, prevail elsewhere. A deep layered trough is 
supporting scattered moderate convection from 13N to 18N between 
78W and 83W. To the south, scattered moderate convection is 
depicted south of 15N between 73W and 83W in association to the 
eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough. 
  
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will
continue over the central and eastern Caribbean through Tue. The 
pressure gradient across the region will relax Tue through Fri as 
broad low pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall 
weaker winds and diminishing seas throughout the remainder of the 
week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from near 31N39W southwestward to 27N46W, 
where it becomes stationary to near 27N55W, and continues as a
frontal trough westward and through the central Bahamas along 
25N. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. is building 
eastward across the Atlantic waters north of the trough. The 
resulting pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong NE to E 
winds north of 24N and west of 59W. Seas within these winds are 8
to 11 ft. North of the front and east of 59W, moderated to 
locally fresh NE to E winds prevail along with seas 6 to 8 ft. 
Scattered moderate convection is found along and north of the 
frontal boundary and trough. Farther east, a trough extends from 
31N28W to 26N18W. Moderate northwest winds and seas 8 to 9 ft are 
west of the front to near 32.5W. Gentle to moderate trades along 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient will maintain
widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to near 
11 ft north of the trough and west of 60W through Tue morning. 
Broad low pressure is expected to gradually develop along the 
western edge of the trough beginning late Tue and slowly track 
northward throughout the week. Fresh to near gale- force winds 
with rough to very rough seas, possibly peaking to around 14 ft, 
will expand eastward beyond Wed, impacting the waters mainly N of 
about 27N. A cold front will slowly move across the waters between
Florida and 77W Fri and Fri night, but is expected not to have 
significant impacts on winds and seas.