Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

717
AXNT20 KNHC 021019
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 02 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 16N167W, and continues west-soutwhestward to 10N30W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N44W and to 07N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between
16W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 33W-45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S.
and lower pressure south of the area is sustaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds over the NE Gulf. Moderate seas 
are with these winds. An upper-level trough continues to 
support scattered to numerous convection east of 86W. Elsewhere,
mostly light to gentle winds are over the rest of the basin along
with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure south of the area will 
maintain fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the NE Gulf
through Mon night. A cold front will reach along the Texas coast 
Tue afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf Tue night into early 
Wed, followed by moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. The 
front will weaken as it slowly moves across the basin through Thu,
then across Florida Thu night into Fri. In its wake, weak high 
pressure will settle in over the region through Fri night. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft continue across 
the central and eastern Caribbean per overnight Ascat scatterometer
data, buoy observations and altimeter satellite data. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. 
  
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate 
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through 
Tue night. The pressure gradient will relax starting Mon night as 
broad low pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall 
weaker winds and diminishing seas for the remainder of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A coastal trough is analyzed from just north of the area at 
32N80W south to near 27N80W. Strong to near-gale force winds 
prevail north of 27N and west of 70W, associated with a tight 
gradient between the trough and high pressure of 1033 mb well N of
the area just offshore New England. Overnight altimeter data 
indicated rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range over these waters. 
Overnight Ascat scatterometer data reveals fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds north of a cold front that extends from 
near 31N41W southwestward to 28N48W, where it becomes stationary 
to near 25N60W, and continues as a frontal trough to near 24N77W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 22N to 27N between 64W and 72W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 59W and 
64W, and within 60 nm of the stationary front west of 48W. Farther
east, a trough extends from 31N26.5W to 27N22W and to near 
22N22W. Fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft are west of the 
front to near 31W. Gentle to moderate trades along with seas of 4 
to 6 ft are elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will continue 
through Tue night as high pressure builds across the northern and
central waters. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to
widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas
to around 10 ft north of about 27N and west of 60W. Broad low 
pressure is expected to gradually develop along the western edge 
of the stationary front beginning late Tue and slowly track 
northward later in the week. Fresh to near gale winds along with 
rough to very rough seas, possibly peaking to around 14 ft, will 
expand eastward beyond Wed impacting the waters mainly N of about 
27N. A cold front will slowly move across the waters between 
Florida and 77W Fri and Fri night, but is expected not to have 
significant impacts on winds and seas.