Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
302 AXPZ20 KNHC 011016 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low is over the Baja California Norte offshores, from which a cold front extends SW to 21N123W. The low pressure with attendant cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through this evening. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front this morning and rapidly reach strong to minimal gale-force by this afternoon. A period of rough seas to 9 ft is expected later this morning through early in the evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 05N103W to 07N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01S to 10N between 77W and 88W, and from 03S to 08N between 104W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 5 to 9 ft seas. A 1006 mb low is over the Baja California Norte offshores from which a cold front extends SW to 21N123W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are ahead of the front affecting the Baja California Norte Peninsula and its offshores as well as the northern Gulf of California. Aside from the convection, fresh to strong winds in the eastern semicircle of the low and rough seas to 9 ft are affecting the Baja California offshores N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are developing in the northern half of the Gulf of California where seas remain slight. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Mon morning. The low pressure with attendant cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through this evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with this system will continue to affect the offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through this afternoon when seas will subside below 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds will continue to develop over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front, rapidly reaching strong to minimal gale- force winds by this afternoon. A period of rough seas to 9 ft is expected from late this morning through early in the evening. The front will move into NW Mexico by Mon morning, and building high pressure NW of Baja California Norte will tighten the gradient in the Gulf, thus resulting in moderate to fresh northerly winds continuing through Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will also develop along the Baja offshores Mon through Tue morning. Long period NW swell will build seas to 8 to 9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into Thu morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap NE winds prevail in the Papagayo region where seas have built to 8-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshores between Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds by Mon evening. A low pressure may develop SW of the Costa Rica offshores late Tue and is forecast to bring strong SW winds and rough seas to 9 ft to the Costa Rica and Panama offshores into early Fri morning. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1006 mb low is over the Baja California Norte offshores from which a cold front extends SW to 21N123W where it stalls to 17N134W. Fresh to strong winds are over the Baja California Norte offshores, however fresh NNE winds and rough seas to 9 ft follows the front west of the offshores to 133W. Moderate NE to E winds are across the remainder subtropical waters along with moderate seas. South of the monsoon, there is an area of fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas to 9 ft from 00N to 05N between 108W and 114W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will continue to push northeastward today, which will result in winds diminishing to moderate or weaker speeds, and seas subsiding to 7 ft. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW waters on Mon, which will be followed by fresh to strong winds and long period NW swell resulting in rough seas to 15 ft. The front will move eastward and dissipate Tue night west of the Baja California offshore waters. However, NW swell will continue to support rough seas over the subtropical and western tropical waters through Fri.