Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

910
AXPZ20 KNHC 010404
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low is west of the Baja California Norte
offshores from which a cold front extends SW to 18N130W. The low
pressure with attendant cold front will move across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters tonight into Sun evening. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the northern Gulf of
California ahead of the front and rapidly reach strong to 
minimal gale-force winds by Sun afternoon. A period of rough seas
to 9 ft is expected from late Sun morning through early in the 
evening. 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N110W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 03S to 07N between
102W and 121W, from 00N to 09N E of 87W, and from 01S to 13N
between 121W and 138W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to near gale force N to NE gap winds are occurring over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 5 to 8 ft seas. A 1005 mb low is
west of the Baja California Norte offshores from which a cold
front extends SW to 18N130W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
tstms are ahead of the front affecting the Baja California Norte
Peninsula and its offshores as well as the northern Gulf of
California. Aside from the convection, fresh to strong winds in 
the eastern semicircle of the low and rough seas to 8 ft are
affecting the Baja California offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle and seas moderate to
6 ft, except slight to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue through Mon morning. A low pressure
with attendant cold front will move across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters tonight into Sun evening. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas associated with this system will continue
to affect the offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun
afternoon when seas will subside below 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW
winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California ahead of
the front and rapidly reach strong to minimal gale-force winds by
Sun afternoon. A period of rough seas to 9 ft is expected from
late Sun morning through early in the evening. The front will
move into NW Mexico by Mon morning, and building high pressure NW
of Baja California Norte will tighten the gradient in the Gulf,
thus resulting in moderate to fresh northerly winds continuing 
through Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will also
develop along the Baja offshores Mon through Tue morning. Long
period NW swell will build seas to 8 to 9 ft N of Cabo San 
Lazaro Tue night into Thu morning. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong gap NE winds in
the Papagayo region where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 3 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are
elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are across the
offshores between Colombia and Panama.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish to moderate or weaker
speeds by Mon evening. A low pressure may develop SW of the Costa
Rica offshores late Tue and is forecast to bring strong SW winds
to the Costa Rica and Panama offshores into early Fri morning.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1005 mb low is west of the Baja California Norte offshores 
from which a cold front extends SW to 18N130W. Fresh to strong 
winds in counter-clockwise flow surrounds the low from 20N to 
30N between 119W and 129W, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh 
southwest winds are found farther southwest along the cold front.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak ridging north of 
the region and lower pressure near the monsoon trough is 
supporting only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast 
waters. Large, long-period SW swell is expanding northward across
the equator to 09N between 87W-134W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, the low will move slowly eastward through the 
weekend. The system should move over the offshore zones west of 
the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas 
diminishing by Sun night.