Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
809 AXNT20 KNHC 010400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 13N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 07N35W and then to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE to E winds across the northeast Gulf, south of 1032 mb over Virginia. A concurrent altimeter indicated 4-6 ft seas in northeast Gulf as well. Scattered showers and tstms are noted over the eastern Gulf due to a combination of abundant Atlantic moisture, convergentwinds and divergent flow aloft. Light to gentle breezes and 2-4 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient related to the strong high pressure ridging southward along the southeastern U.S. seaboard will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across the north-central and NE Gulf through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue as a warm front develops over the NE Gulf. The warm front will slowly move northeastward away from the area Tue through Wed as the cold front slowly moves eastward across the Gulf, providing for areas of moderate winds and seas. The cold front will then weaken over the eastern Gulf Thu and Thu night while weak high pressure then builds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central Caribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Divergent flow aloft on the eastern side of an upper low north of Colombia is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue through Mon, with some areas of strong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon through Thu as broad low pressure with a relaxed pressure gradient gradually develops and then persists across the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a cold front reaching from 31N51W to 25N63W, and along a dissipating stationary front into the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of the front. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed along a cold front from 1012 mb low pressure west of Madeira near 33N21W to 26N21W and continues as a stationary front to 21N30W. Moderate N winds and moderate N swell of 6 to 9 ft follow the front north of 23N between 20W and 40W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic south of 31N. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken through Sun while it moves southeastward as high pressure in its wake builds across the western Atlantic. To the south of the high, mariners can expect widespread areas of fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds, and rough seas to near 11 feet from Mon night and into Tue. The front is forecast to become nearly stationary near 25N Sun through Mon night. A warm front will develop over the NE Gulf Tue, and move northeastward across the SW north Atlantic Wed. As the high pressure off of the U.S. east coast gradually shifts east, a weakening cold front will approach from the eastern Gulf Thu, then move offshore of Florida late Thu night.