Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

409
AXNT20 KNHC 310615
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N22W where 
it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N41W to 
08N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 
14N between 10W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern 
United States, a surface trough over the northern Bahamas and a 
trough over the SW Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh east 
winds across the northeast Gulf. Moderate seas to 6 ft are with 
these winds. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds prevails 
elsewhere.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure over the Bahamas
and the NW Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds and moderate seas across the northeast and
north-central Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, expect a cold front 
to enter the northwest Gulf Tue night, and move slowly 
southeastward, reaching the east-central Gulf Wed night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of
America and the W Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia 
supports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas in the south- 
central Caribbean offshore Colombia. Mainly moderate trades and 
3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and 
eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are 
elsewhere. Otherwise, a surface trough analyzed along the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshores supports scattered heavy
showers over these offshore areas. Isolated showers are elsewhere
in the NE and south-central basin. 
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and 
eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of 
strong winds near the coast of NW Colombia and NW Venezuela. 
Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon 
through Wed as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic 
well to the NE of the Bahamas.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low NE of Bermuda southwestward
to 22N69W. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front to
55W and N of 24N. Moderate to fresh NNE winds follow the front
along with 7-8 ft seas. Over the E subtropics, another cold front
extends from 30N23W SW to 24N31W where it stalls and weakens to 
21N40W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are N of 24N 
reaching east as far as 13W, including the Canary Islands. Surface
ridging dominates elsewhere N of 20N. Fresh to strong NNE winds 
and rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. 
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will shift northeastward 
through the weekend, with strong high pressure building into the 
western Atlantic, and forcing a remnant frontal trough southward 
to the central Bahamas Sun through early Mon. Fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds, with rough seas possibly as high as 12 ft
will persist north of the frontal trough into next week, as the 
low pressure moves northeastward, and strong high pressure 
gradually builds into the western Atlantic. This will reinvigorate
the frontal trough and force it southeastward, where it will 
stall near 24N Sun through early Mon, then lift northward late Mon
through Wed as broad low pressure develops well NE of the 
Bahamas.