Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
761 AXNT20 KNHC 302217 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to near 06N42.5W. Then, another portion of the ITCZ extends from 10N50.5W to 11N61.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 14N and E of 28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States, a surface trough over the Bahamas and a trough over the south-central Gulf are supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf. Moderate seas to 7 ft are with these winds. Moderate or weaker winds prevails elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across the northeast and north- central Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, expect a cold front to enter the northwest Gulf Tue night, and move slowly southeastward, reaching the east-central Gulf Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf and Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong trades and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas elsewhere. A surface trough analyzed from Jamaica to the north coast of Panama supports scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring in the E Caribbean, driven by convergent surface winds and an upper- level trough. For the forecast, a lingering frontal trough extends from 1012 mb low pres NE of Bermuda southwestward to 27N79W, allowing for a modest pressure gradient to the south, and across the Caribbean basin. The low pres will shift NE through the weekend, with strong high pressure building into the western Atlantic, and forcing the frontal trough southward to the central Bahamas Sun through early Mon. Expect moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern Caribbean to continue through Mon, with small areas of strong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin- wide late Mon through Wed as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic well NE of the Bahamas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low is analyzed north of the area near 33N62W. A cold front extends from this low to the waters north of the Turks and Caicos. A stationary front also extends from this low to 31N55W to 22N37W to 31N25W. A surface trough extends from 30N66W to north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6-11 ft prevail N of the large stationary front and surface trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the cold front, generally N of 22N between 58W and 72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also along the stationary front N of 25N between 19W and the front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, 1012 mb low pres NE of Bermuda extends a cold front S then SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands, while a lingering frontal trough extends from the low pres through 31N63W to near 27N79W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds with rough seas as high as 12 ft will persist north of the frontal trough into next week, as the low pressure moves northeastward, and strong high pressure gradually builds into the western Atlantic. This will reinvigorate the frontal trough and force it southeastward, where it will stall near 24N Sun through early Mon, then lift northward late Mon through Wed as broad low pressure develops well NE of the Bahamas.