Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

678
AXNT20 KNHC 300603
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N25W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N26W to 07N40W, where it is broken by a surface 
trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 07N45W to 08N60W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 15W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the Tennessee Valley extends a ridge into the 
northern Gulf. The pressure gradient tightens over the eastern 
half of the Gulf due to the presence of a frontal boundary
northeast of the Bahamas and a trough over the central Gulf
extending into the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This is resulting 
in moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of 91W along with 
moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail west of 
91W.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a high 
pressure system over the Carolinas and low pressure over the 
Bahamas will continue to support moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds and moderate seas in the northeast and north-central 
Gulf into early next week. Looking ahead, expect fresh southeast 
to south winds over much of the northwest Gulf by Tue night 
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front 
that will be moving through the Southern Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A frontal boundary over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting a 
weak gradient over the Caribbean waters west of 77W, thus leading
to light to gentle winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas are elsewhere due to the Azores High,
which extends to 65W, and Puerto Rico NE adjacent waters. Recent 
scatterometer data indicate the presence of a surface trough 
extending from Jamaica to NW Colombia, which is supporting 
scattered showers in the Windward Passage and Jamaica southern
adjacent waters.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will continue 
south of 15N through the eastern, central and portions of the SW 
Caribbean through Sun night, then diminish. Light to gentle 
breezes are forecast elsewhere into early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A warm front extends from 28N55W to 31N62W to a 1013 mb low near 
30N70W. A cold front extends from the low pressure to the central 
Bahamas. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds
in the northern semicircle of the low where scattered heavy
showers continue to shift northeastward to 60W. Scatt data also
show fresh NE winds elsewhere W of 70W N of the cold front and the
Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 25N35W
to 26N44W where it transitions to a stationary front that
continues to 28N57W where it transitions to a warm front. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N30W to 29N41W. Scattered
showers are ahead of the leading front to 18W or Canary Islands
western adjacent waters. Aside from the convection, fresh to
strong NNE winds follow the reinforcing front along with rough
seas to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.  
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds along with rough seas to around 11 ft will persist north of 
the front into next week as the low pressure moves northeastward 
past Bermuda, and the reinforced cold front moves southeastward 
and stalls near, or along 24N.