Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
735 AXPZ20 KNHC 300319 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Vance are centered near 20.7N 107.7W at 30/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 10 ft are expected in the area of highest winds. Swells generated by Vance's remnants will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N93W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N123W. A 1011 mb low is near 06N128W. Another 1011 mb low is analyzed near 09N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ, and from 05N 11N and W of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Vance near the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Aside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters, 2-4 ft over the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, the remnants of Vance will dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early next week and diminish by Mon night. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to strong SE to SW winds. Fresh NW winds should occur over the Gulf of California on Mon and Tue in the wake of the extratropical cyclone. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 03N-08N east of 88W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue through tomorrow before weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell will reach the equatorial waters tomorrow before diminishing on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb low is centered near 27N136W with a trough extending southwestward to 18N140W. Winds north of the low are E fresh with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large, long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to 04N between 108W-128W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the low will become an extratropical cyclone by tomorrow morning and then move slowly eastward. By Fri night, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front and fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold front. The system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by Sun night.