Tropical Cyclone Discussion

695
WTPZ42 KNHC 300232
TCDEP2
 
Remnants Of Vance Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026

Highly sheared convection associated with Vance has stretched its 
low-level circulation to the point where it no longer has a 
well-defined center. Thus, Vance no longer meets the criteria of a 
tropical cyclone and this will be the final NHC advisory the system. 
Satellite imagery continues to show some puffs of deep convection 
just east of the remnants of Vance, and this activity may persist 
until the circulation fully dissipates.
 
Vance's remnants are estimated to be moving north-northeastward 
towards the mainland Mexican coast. Lingering showers and 
thunderstorms from its remnant moisture are expected to continue 
impacting west-central Mexico and move into the U.S. Southern Plains 
and New Mexico through the next day or so.

For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance's remnants will 
impact portions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This 
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and 
southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern 
Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance's remnants will 
produce heavy rain across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and 
New Mexico today into Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 20.7N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED