Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
258 WTPZ32 KNHC 292031 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vance Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026 ...VANCE WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWARD NEARING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...MOISTURE FROM VANCE WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.6W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vance was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 108.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), this motion is expected to continue until Vance dissipates tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through tonight, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals over 5 inches possible across central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance combined with other Pacific moisture will begin to produce heavy rainfall across the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today into Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.