Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

151
WTPZ32 KNHC 290832
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 AM MST Thu Oct 29 2026
 
...FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES FOR MEXICO DUE TO VANCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Vance is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to 
the north, followed by a decrease in forward speed, is expected 
over the next 24 hours.
 
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance should gradually weaken 
today and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low late 
today.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.