Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
905 AXNT20 KNHC 290450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gales and Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from S of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low just N of western Cuba is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. Winds are reaching minimal gale force near 31N73W. Winds will diminish tonight, with strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas persisting N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N17W and continues to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N and E of 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system over New England and a stationary front over the offshores NE of the Bahamas support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf. W of 90W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf will prevail into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into Sat as the ridge slides eastward. Another robust high pressure system will reach New England late this weekend and early next week allowing winds and seas to increase in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead, expect fresh SE to S winds over much of the Gulf by Mon between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward into the south-central Caribbean through the week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale warning and significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas. Aside from the conditions mentioned in the Special Features section above, winds are moderate or weaker, with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending across the offshore zones N of 27N to a 1010 mb low in the Florida Straits area of the Bahamas supports strong to gale- force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the offshores between 59W and 76W. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 27N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Looking ahead, weak low pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift northeastward and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 11 ft N of the front through early next week.