Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
835 AXNT20 KNHC 282104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gales and Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from S of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low just N of central Cuba is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. Winds are reaching minimal gale force near 31N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of the front between 65W and 75W. Winds will start to diminish tonight, with strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas persisting N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N and between 29W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas prevail E of 90W. W of 90W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure system over New England and a complex weather system over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into Sat as the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, another robust high pressure system will reach New England late this weekend and early next week allowing winds and seas to increase in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Expect fresh SE to S winds over much of the Gulf by Mon between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, a surface trough extends along 80W north of 15N into central Cuba. The trough will drift westward and weaken over the next couple of days. Ample tropical moisture and upper- level divergence support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward into the south- central Caribbean through the week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a gale warning and significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas. Aside from the conditions mentioned in the Special Features section above, winds are moderate or weaker, with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from SE of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low in the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas supports strong to gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring east of the Bahamas. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Weak low pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift northeastward and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 11 ft N of the front through early next week.