Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

378
AXPZ20 KNHC 282044
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance is centered near 
20.1N 109.1W at 28/2100 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 
12-13 ft or 4 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with 
convection limited to the NE to E side of the system. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE 
semicircle of Vance and 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward 
the north northeast, and is forecast to continue on this track. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h, 
followed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of 
northwestern Mexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with 
Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this 
week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across 
central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far 
northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. 
Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of 
southwestern, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of 
the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. 
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 04N98W to 09N113W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 10N between 105W and 120W, from 00N to 16N 
between 120W and 130W, and from 00N to 10N between 130W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance.
Fresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate seas, prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and slight to 
moderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
outside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly 
moderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off 
Mexico.
For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N 
108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W
Thu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri 
afternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to 
near gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh through
Sat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing low 
pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California 
Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential 
for increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas will prevail otherwise. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf
of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail. 
For the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end 
of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at 
times this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except 
mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough
in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds 
freshen there on Fri. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above for information on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Vance.
A slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters. Fresh winds 
and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High pressure 
prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 15N to 18N and between 
124W and 137W. Moderate seas are found over these waters. 
Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 04N 
between 100W and 120W. Across the remainder of the waters, winds 
are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.
For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N 
108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W
Thu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri 
afternoon. Cross equatorial SW swell will build seas to 7-10 ft 
S of 04N between 105W and 128W by late tonight, while mixing with
NE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to 
linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start 
of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low 
pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the
end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential 
for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts 
eastward.