Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
106 WTPZ32 KNHC 282032 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vance Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026 ...VANCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 109.1W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vance was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and Vance is expected to become post-tropical within the next 24 hours, dissipating shortly thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.