Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
227 AXNT20 KNHC 281713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gales and Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from S of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low in the W Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed gale-force winds ongoing near 30N71W. Peak seas are near 14 ft N of the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of the front and S of the front between 65W and 72W. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 29W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over New England extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pres over the Bahamas is supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds E of 90W. Moderate to locally rough seas are over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system over New England and a complex weather system over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into Sat as the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, another robust high pressure system will reach New England late this weekend and early next week allowing winds and seas to increase in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough in the central Caribbean supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the waters from northern Colombia to E Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient allows for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, a surface trough extends southward across central Cuba into the Caribbean along 80W. The trough will drift westward and weaken over the next couple of days. Ample tropical moisture and upper-level divergence support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward through the week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas. E of 70W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across areas N of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from SE of Bermuda to a 1010 mb low in the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas supports strong to gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring east of the Bahamas. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Looking ahead, weak low pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift northeastward and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 10 ft N of the front through early next week.