Tropical Cyclone Discussion

381
WTPZ42 KNHC 281433
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
After a robust convective burst overnight, the low-level center of 
Vance is now fully exposed once again as strong westerly shear 
persists over the storm. The lingering convective activity is 
displaced well to the east of Vance's center, with gusty winds and 
heavy rain spreading toward Islas Marias and coastal portions of 
west-central Mexico. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which 
is supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak classification, UW-CIMSS 
objective estimates, and the overnight scatterometer data.

The long-term motion of Vance is to the north-northwest (340/9 kt), 
although the exposed center has moved erratically this morning. 
Recent satellite images suggest Vance is beginning to turn more 
northward as expected, and the track models agree on a northward to 
north-northeastward motion during the next couple of days. The 
latest NHC forecast lies to the left of the previous one, mainly the 
result of an initial westward position adjustment. The vertical wind 
shear over Vance will remain very strong during the next 24-48 
hours, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show 
the system devoid of convection by tomorrow morning. The updated NHC 
forecast shows Vance becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 
hours, with continued weakening through Friday that follows HCCA and 
IVCN. It is possible that the remnant low dissipates over the Gulf 
of California before it reaches the coast of Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact 
portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall 
may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern 
Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, 
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of 
Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of Vance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 19.2N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 20.6N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 22.2N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 23.9N 108.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 24.9N 108.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED