Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

373
WTPZ32 KNHC 281432
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
...VANCE REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 109.2 West. Vance is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn 
toward the north and north-northeast is expected later today and 
tonight, with the center passing to the west of Islas Marias 
overnight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by gradual 
weakening tonight through Friday. Vance is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.