Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
174 WTPZ32 KNHC 280832 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 200 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026 ...VANCE HOLDING STEADY ON A NORTHWARD TRACK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 108.6W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.6 West. Vance is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h, followed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday as it approaches the coast of northwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.