Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
507 AXNT20 KNHC 280441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell N of Bahamas: NE swell from earlier gales in the area continue to lead to very rough seas for waters N of 26N and W of 71W. Peak seas are near 18 ft offshore east-central Florida. Although gales have ended, the pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern U.S. and low pressure centered in the Bahamas will continue to produce strong NE to E winds into Thu, keep seas rough to very rough. Seas of 12 ft or greater are likely to persist for waters offshore NE Florida through at least tonight. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N20W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 28W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pres over the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh winds E of 90W. Moderate to rough seas are over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and a complex weather system over the Bahamas will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from low pres over the Bahamas across central Cuba to around 15N80W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found N of 16N and W of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found over the eastern Caribbean east of 70W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface trough extends southward across central Cuba and into the Caribbean along 80W from low pressure near Andros Island in the Bahamas. The trough will remain nearly stationary. Ample tropical moisture and upper-level divergence support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean, especially over Hispaniola. The surface trough will gradually weaken through the middle of the week. Winds and seas will diminish in the W Caribbean Wed. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward this week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 26N between 67W and 72W in association with a deep-layer trough and abundant tropical moisture. This activity will continue to provide periods of heavy rain to Hispaniola over the next couple of days. A stationary front extends from 31N55W to a 1010 mb low pressure over the Bahamas near 25N77W. N of this boundary, strong NE to E winds and very rough seas prevail, to the south and seas, mainly moderate SE winds with moderate to locally rough seas are present. To the east, another stationary front extends from 31N34W to 29N40W. Moderate W winds and moderate seas are noted N and W of this front. In NE waters, rough seas are present N of 26N and E of 40W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from near 31N55W to a 1010 mb low in the NW Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the front and west of the low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of the front and south of the front between 66W and 73W. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist north of 28N and west of 65W through Thu as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Looking ahead, weak low pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift to the northeast and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 10 ft north of the front through Sun.