Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
534 AXNT20 KNHC 271615 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending from 31N60W to a 1008 mb low pres system over the NW Bahamas continues to support a large area of strong to gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters north of the front and west of the low. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with these features, more concentrated from 22N to 29N between 70W and 74W. Abundant tropical moisture will remain in place in this area, favoring periods of locally heavy rain over parts of eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the next few days, resulting in localized flooding. Strong high pressure will remain over the eastern United States during the next few days. Winds will diminish below gale-force by this evening. However, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell will persist to the north of the front through the workweek and into the upcoming weekend, gradually diminishing. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 09N40W to northern Guyana near 07.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 30W and 50W, and from 08N to 13N between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters promoting fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the eastern Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida and Yucatan channel. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and a complex weather system over the Bahamas will force fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf into Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish late this week into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting Hispaniola and the Caribbean adjacent waters as well as western Venezuela, including Lake Maracaibo, and northern Colombia. This convective activity is ahead of an upper-level trough extending from eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean. A weak 1010 mb low is analyzed over the Cayman Islands. Visible satellite imagery indicates a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with this low. A surface trough extends from the low center to near 12N82W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found N of 16N and W of the low/trough. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring in the Yucatan Channel due to fresh to strong NE winds in the SE Gulf of America. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are seen E of 72W while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail between 72W and 82W. For the forecast, the surface trough will gradually weaken through the middle of the week. Seas up to 8 ft in N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the Yucatan Channel into this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish in the W Caribbean Wed. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward this week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW North Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. A stationary front extends from 31N60W to a 1008 mb low pres system over the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure over the eastern of United States continues to support a large area of strong to gale-foce winds N of the low/front. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to locally rough seas are occurring between the Bahamas and SE Florida. South of the front, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas are evident west of 65W. Farther east, another stationary front is analyzed and extends from 31N30W to 29N40W to 31N45W. Light to gentle winds are near the front. Rough seas are found behind this boundary. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are observed south of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the portion of the front east of 62W is expected to move southeastward as a cold front through Thu while a stationary front will persist over the waters N of 27N and W of 62W. A high pressure center will remain over the SE United States during this time. Gale-force winds will diminish by this evening. However, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell will persist to the north of the front through the forecast period, gradually diminishing.