Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
710 AXPZ20 KNHC 271503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 16.3N 107.7W at 27/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited to the SE side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted between 75 nm and 210 nm in the SE quadrant. Vance is moving northwestward and is forecast to remain on a NW track for the next day or two before starting to move northward. The system is forecast to maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours before starting to weaken. Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the region is supporting minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with rough seas. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by mid-morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W. It resumes from 11N109W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 95W and 102W, from 01N to 05N between 111W and 117W, and from 00N to 09N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte from near Punta Eugenia northward. Moderate seas prevail away from those Special Features areas, except slight in the northern and central Gulf of California, higher in the SE Gulf due to swells associated with Vance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.3N 108.2W this evening, 19.0N 108.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 108.6W Wed evening, become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 24.3N 107.8W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to near gale force mid- morning, pulsing at those speeds through Thu night, then pulsing moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish Wed. A developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail otherwise. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance. A cold front has entered the far NW waters, with scattered moderate to strong convection ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate tradewinds N of the monsoon trough toe near 20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas are found over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 02N between 98W and 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.3N 108.2W this evening, 19.0N 108.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 108.6W Wed evening, become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 24.3N 107.8W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds by early on Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread northward through late Wed, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N between 105W and 128W by late Wed night, while mixing with NE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts eastward.