Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
082 AXNT20 KNHC 270914 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending from 31N62W to a 1009 mb low pres system over the NW Bahamas is supporting a large area of strong to gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters north of the front and west of the low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of the frontal boundary and also east of 67W south of the front. Periods of heavy rainfall may affect E Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the next few days, resulting in localized flooding. Strong high pressure will remain over the eastern United States in the next few days. Gale-force winds will diminish by tonight; however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell will persist to the north of the front through the workweek and into the upcoming weekend, gradually diminishing. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 07N40W and to 07N57W. A few showers are noted within 120 nm on both sides of these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure north of the area supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan channel. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient will force fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf during the next few days. Winds and seas will gradually diminish late this week into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the N and NE Caribbean associated with a complex weather system over the Bahamas. A surface trough extends across E Cuba and the central Caribbean and a moderate pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft W of 80W. However, due to stronger winds in the E Gulf of America, seas to 8 ft are occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, mainly moderate easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found in the E Caribbean, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail between 70W and 80W. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift westward over the next few days, and moderate to fresh northerly winds will persist ahead of the boundary. Seas up to 8 ft in N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the Yucatan Channel into this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish in the W Caribbean Wed. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward this week and into the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW North Atlantic and heavy rainfall affecting the Bahamas. South of the stationary front that extends from SE of Bermuda to the Bahamas, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring west of 65W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N30W to 29N40W to 31N49W. Rough seas are found behind this boundary. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the portion of the front east of 62W is expected to move southeastward as a cold front through Thu while a stationary front will persist over the waters N of 27N and W of 62W. A high pressure center will remain over the SE of the United States during this time. Gale-force winds will diminish by tonight; however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell will persist to the north of the front through the forecast period, gradually diminishing.