Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
976 AXNT20 KNHC 270435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing extending southward through the Bahamas into the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rainfall over Hispaniola, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through tonight. The trough will gradually shift north through Wed while weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding, particularly over portions Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. NW Atlantic Significant Swell: A tight pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure centered over the eastern United States and a stationary front extended from SE of Bermuda to the Bahamas is supporting widespread strong to near gale-force NE winds NW of the front, along with very rough seas of up to 18 ft. These very rough seas extend south to 25N and E to 67W. The front will remain generally stationary, and only gradually weaken through Wed as the high pressure slides eastward. This will keep strong winds and very rough seas in place through at least Wed. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and extends southwestward to 06N30W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 08N43W and to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high center over the eastern United States lower pressure in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Mainly moderate winds and seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the weather pattern will persist into midweek, followed by diminishing winds and seas into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. A deep-layer trough extending from eastern Cuba southward to near 15N75W continues to support scattered moderate convection mainly offshore Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted in the NW basin W of 85W, with moderate trades and seas in the eastern basin. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight seas prevail. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the upper level trough will drift eastward through mid- week, keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the central Caribbean will drift westward over the next few days. High pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through midweek, leading to moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through Tue night. Seas of up to 8 ft in N to NE will continue to propagate across the Yucatan Channel through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over Hispaniola, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and for Significant Swell causing very rough seas N of the Bahamas extending eastward to near Bermuda. South of the front and significant swell, mainly moderate S winds and rough seas prevail E to 55W. Another front has stalled further east, from 31N30W to 28N42W to 31N51W. Rough seas are N of this boundary, but winds on either side of it are moderate or weaker. The remainder of the basin is under broad high pressure that supports moderate to locally fresh trades winds south of about 24N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over these waters. Gentle winds and mostly moderate seas are elsewhere N of 24N. For the forecast west of 55W, the portion of a currently stationary front east of 60W is expected to move southeastward as a cold front through Thu while a stationary front will persist over the waters N of 27N and W of 60W. A high pressure center will remain over the SE of the United States during this time. The frequent gusts to gale- force will diminish by tonight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell will persist to the north of the front through Wed while gradually diminishing.