Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

776
AXNT20 KNHC 270009
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800  UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery 
through 2345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1029
mb high pressure system over the eastern United States and a 
stationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas 
supports a large area of strong winds, with frequent gusts to 
gale force, over most of the waters north of 27N and west of the
front. Rough to very rough seas in north to northeast swell 
follow the front. The portion of the front east of 70W is 
expected to begin to drift southeastward Tue through Wed night as
a cold front before becoming stationary again late this week. 
The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward into the 
north Atlantic during this time. The frequent gusts to gale-force
will diminish tonight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough 
to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front will 
persist through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to
these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary 
precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for 
further details. 
Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing 
extending southward through the Bahamas into the northwestern
Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support 
periods of heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the 
southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into Wed.
The trough will gradually shift north and east through Wed while
weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for 
dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over 
portion of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. 
Please refer to your local weather services and the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and 
extends southwestward to 09N21.5W and to 06N30W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N37W to 10N50W and to 11N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the 
trough between 24W-26W and within 30 nm south of the trough 
between 27W-29W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high center over the
eastern United States and a stationary front extending into the 
Bahamas supports fresh to strong northeast to east winds and 
rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of 
Florida. Moderate, or lighter winds along with moderate seas 
continue elsewhere.
For the forecast, the present weather pattern will persist into 
Wed, followed by diminishing winds and seas into next weekend. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
prevail through at least Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. 
A mid to upper-level low located over eastern and central Cuba 
combined with abundant deep tropical moisture continues to
support pockets of scattered showers and thunderstorms across 
the central Caribbean reaching northward to Hispaniola. Latest 
Ascat scatterometer data passes indicate moderate northeast to
east winds near the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades and moderate seas are present east of about 72W. Moderate
to locally fresh northwest to north winds are also in the Gulf 
of Honduras along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter trades along with slight to moderate seas remain.
For the forecast, the mid to upper-level low will drift eastward
through Wed maintaining the chance of showers and thunderstorms 
over the same area. Meanwhile, a trough over the central 
Caribbean will drift westward over the next few days. A weak low 
may develop along the trough axis. High pressure across the 
eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and 
the Gulf of America through Wed, leading to moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean west 
of the trough through Tue night. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy 
rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and 
Hispaniola.
A tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure system
over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending 
from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a large area of 
strong northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, 
across most of the waters north of about 27N and west of the 
front. Rough to very rough seas in north to northeast swell 
follow the front.
South of the front, moderate to fresh southeast to south winds 
and rough to very rough seas are occurring and extend eastward to
60W. Farther east, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N34W to 
28N44W, where it transitions to a stationary front northwestward 
from there to north of the area at 31N52W. Mostly moderate 
easterly winds and rough seas are north of 29N between 38W and 
53W. The remainder of the basin is under broad high pressure that
supports moderate to locally fresh trades winds south of about 
26N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over these waters. Light to gentle 
winds and mostly moderate seas are elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present from just north 
of Hispaniola to near 30N and between 66W and 75W. This activity 
is being sustained by upper-level divergence east of a broad mid
to upper-level low noted over the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the portion of the front east of 
60W is expected to move southeastward as a cold front through Thu
while a stationary front will persist over the waters north of 
27N and west of 60W. A high pressure center will remain over the
eastern U.S. during this time. The frequent gusts to gale-force 
will diminish by tonight, however, fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas in northeast swell will persist to the 
north of the front through Wed while gradually diminishing.