Tropical Cyclone Discussion

361
WTPA43 PHFO 262033
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Olana Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026
 
It has been 6-9 hours since Olana has produced any organized 
convection close to its center. In fact, the remaining convection 
has become even more removed from the broad circulation, primarily 
oriented in a fragmented band stretching from Johnston Atoll 
southward, more than 200 n mi away from the estimated center. If 
organized convection does not return near Olana's center soon, the 
depression will likely be declared a remnant low later today. For 
now, the intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt.
 
The exposed low-level circulation continues to move slowly to the 
southeast, estimated at 140/3 kt. The system is primarily being 
steered by low-level flow that is light and variable, due to 
competing low-level ridges, both to the south and north of the 
cyclone. The NHC track forecast shows Olana, or its remnants, making 
a slow drift from southeastward to northeastward over the next 24 to 
48 hours. This forecast solution is roughly a blend of the simple 
and corrected consensus track aids. 
 
High vertical wind shear from an upper-level trough and plenty of 
nearby dry air are likely to suppress new convective development 
near the circulation in the short term, and Olana is now forecast to 
become a remnant low later today. The global and hurricane-regional 
model guidance also show the circulation becoming increasingly 
stretched out with the system forecast to degenerate into a trough 
in 48-60 h. It is worth mentioning that, towards the end of this 
week, some model solutions show the upper-level trough cutting off 
and interacting with Olana's remnants. This evolution could result 
in some baroclinic redevelopment of the circulation during that 
time, though enough uncertainty remains to not depict this solution 
right now. Although Olana is forecast to dissipate prior to reaching 
Johnston Atoll, shower and thunderstorm activity displaced well 
northeast of the center is already reaching the area, and could 
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over the next couple of 
days. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.6N 176.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.3N 176.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1800Z 13.5N 175.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 14.0N 174.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 14.5N 174.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED