Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
379 WTPZ32 KNHC 261433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Mon Oct 26 2026 ...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 105.7W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 105.7 West. Vance is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest on Tuesday and north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible, across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and coastal sections of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.