Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
953 AXNT20 KNHC 261012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low pressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front extending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread strong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 19 ft. Gales will be present N of 27N between 65W and 72W, with a broader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W. The portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before becoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this time. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing extending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into midweek. The trough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding, particularly over portion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N37W, and then from 08N44W to 08N55W. A surface trough is analyzed from 14N36W to 07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N and between 17W and 27W. Similar convection is noted east of the surface trough. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system over the eastern United States and a stationary front extending into the Bahamas supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits through midweek, followed by diminishing winds and seas into next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. The combination of a deep mid- to upper-level trough extending from the western Atlantic to the NW Caribbean and a surface trough over the SE Bahamas and E Cuba and Hispaniola result scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between 69W and 75W, impacting E Cuba and Hispaniola. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia and E Panama. Rough seas are evident in the Yucatan channel. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned mid-to upper-level trough will drift eastward through Wed, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the central Caribbean will drift westward over the next few days. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through midweek, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large north swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring between 67W and 78W in association with the stationary front and surface troughs described in the Special Features section. South of the front, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring and extend eastward to 60W. Farther east, a stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic and moderate easterly winds and rough seas are noted north of 29N and betwen 35W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trades winds south of 25N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a robust ridge over the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States and a stationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a large area of strong to gale-force NE-E winds across the western and central offshore zones, along and north of the stationary front. Very rough seas to 19 ft are occurring north of the front. The portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before becoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this time. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.