Tropical Cyclone Discussion

230
WTPA43 PHFO 260831
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Oct 25 2026
 
Olana continues to produce deep convection with cold cloud tops 
near -80C near and to the northeast of the low-level center, as 
southwesterly wind shear begins to increase. The overall convective 
pattern has not changed significantly, and the convective shield has 
remained in a fairly steady state over the past several hours. The 
latest subjective and objective intensity values range between 
28-35 kt. Using these estimates and steady satellite appearance, 
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, although 
that could be generous.
 
The system is forecast to move into even stronger southwesterly 
vertical wind shear which, coupled with dry air entrainment, should 
induce a weakening trend. Given the increasingly hostile 
environmental conditions along the forecast track, the official 
forecast shows Olana degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and 
dissipating into an elongated trough by day 3. The official 
intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance in the 
short term before trending toward the latest consensus aids through 
the remainder of the forecast period.
 
The initial motion is eastward, or 095/6 kt. A generally 
eastward track is expected during the next couple of days as the 
cyclone is steered by the flow along the southern periphery of 
a trough. The official track forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory, but just slightly slower. Based on the latest guidance, 
Olana is expected to dissipate prior to reaching Johnston Atoll.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 14.9N 176.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 14.6N 175.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 14.4N 174.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 14.4N 174.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z 14.8N 173.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1800Z 15.3N 172.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED