Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
167 AXNT20 KNHC 260427 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low pressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front extending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread strong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 20 ft into Mon morning. Gales will be present N of 27N between 62W and 72W, with a broader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W. The low pressure will lift NE of the region on Mon, and gales will end, but with the stationary front remaining in place through mid-week, strong winds and very rough seas will likely continue through at least Wed night, mainly north of the frontal boundary. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing extending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into Mon night. The trough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while weakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over portion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 15N17W southwestward to 06N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 22W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure building in from the Mid-Atlantic U.S. is supporting fresh to strong NE winds through the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate NE winds in the western Gulf. Rough seas, locally to 12 ft, are in the eastern Gulf, with moderate seas in the west. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states and a stationary front that extends into the Bahamas supports fresh to locally near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. This weather pattern will persist into mid- week, followed by diminishing winds and seas into next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola early this week. A 1009 mb low pressure is centered over far eastern Cuba near 20N75W, with a surface trough extending southward from it to around 15N78W. A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends N of 15N between 71W and 79W, impacting both the Windward Passages and nearshore waters of Haiti. Moderate to fresh NW winds dominate the western basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the east. Seas basinwide are moderate, peaking around 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a deep trough over the Bahamas and NW Caribbean will shift very slowly eastward through Tue and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward to a 1009 mb low near E Cuba, continuing to the central Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. To the south of the gale-related low pressure and stationary front described in the Special Features section, a pair of troughs reside. One extends southward from 25N73W to far eastern Cuba and other stretches from 29N72W to Hispaniola. A broad area of numerous moderate convection encompasses the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and surrounding waters. To the east of the troughs, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas extend E of 50W. Otherwise, the Azores high pressure ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for fresh funneling through the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a robust ridge over the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States and a stationary front from near Bermuda to the Bahamas support a large area of strong to gale-force NE to E winds across the western and central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary front. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected N of the front between 66W and 74W. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front. The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward and into the N Atlantic during this time. The gale-force winds will diminish overnight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.