Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
295 AXPZ20 KNHC 260305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.0N 104.7W at 26/0300 UTC, moving moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 24-25 ft or 7.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the NE semicircle and 45 nm in the SW semicircle. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north around midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next several days. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western portions of Michoacán, Jalisco, and Durango, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over Mexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting north to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to increase to 40 kt overnight, then diminish to just below gale-force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant locally rough seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the N coast of Colombia at 10N75W to across Panama to 07.5N88W to SE of Tropical Storm Vance near 09N100W, then resumes well SW of Vance at 08N111W to 09N128W to 1007 mb low pressure near 08N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 13N between 77W and 103W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 128W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance where they are higher due to SE swells moving in from Vance. For the forecast, Vance will move to 15.3N 105.3W Mon morning, 15.7N 106.0W Mon evening, 16.5N 106.8W Tue morning, 17.4N 107.3W Tue evening, 18.5N 107.6W Wed morning, and 20.0N 107.7W Wed evening. Vance will become post-tropical as it moves to 22.0N 107.8W late Thu. Elsewhere, N-NE gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to pulse to 40 kt overnight tonight, then diminish to just below gale force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. These winds will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NW winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo at times through the week, except fresh to strong Mon morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Mon evening, then again starting late Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance. High pressure covers the area generally N of about 19N and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 14N to 19N between 120W and 130W between the high and 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 08N130W with a trough extending from the high to the NNE at 14N129W. A frontal system is just WNW of 30N140W with moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas just SE of 30N140W. Winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas across the remainder of the open waters away from Vance. For the forecast, Vance will move to 15.3N 105.3W Mon morning, 15.7N 106.0W Mon evening, 16.5N 106.8W Tue morning, 17.4N 107.3W Tue evening, 18.5N 107.6W Wed morning, and 20.0N 107.7W Wed evening. Vance will become post-tropical as it moves to 22.0N 107.8W late Thu. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part of the week. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters will support with fresh SE to S winds over the far NW portion of the area into the early part of the week. A tightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system will boost these winds to fresh to strong speeds on Tue, over the waters roughly N of about 28N and W of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected with these winds. Meanwhile, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the S-central waters starting late on Mon, building seas to a rough state over the waters S of about 05N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at least Thu night.