Tropical Cyclone Discussion

627
WTPA43 PHFO 260232
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number   3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

There have not been any significant changes with Olana over the
past several hours. The storm continues to produce a relatively
concentrated area of deep convection near and to the northeast of
the center and in a broken band well southeast of the center. The
storm has a sheared and ragged appearance in satellite images,
likely due to the influence of an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, based on the
various objective and subjective satellite estimates.
 
Olana could strengthen a little in the short term, but a notable
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry
air should cause weakening to begin on Monday. Given the expected
hostile conditions and latest model guidance, Olana is now expected
to become a remnant low by 48 hours and degenerate into an
elongated trough by midweek. This forecast lies near the high end
of the model guidance in the short term, but then falls in line
with the bulk of the models after that.
 
The storm is moving east-northeastward at about 8 kt. The models
show Olana generally tracking eastward over the next few days, but
in an erratic fashion as it moves along the base of a broad
deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and is based on a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
Based on the latest forecast, Olana should dissipate before it
reaches Johnston Atoll.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 14.9N 177.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 14.7N 176.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 14.2N 175.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 14.0N 174.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 14.6N 173.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 15.3N 172.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED