Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
407 AXNT20 KNHC 260014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones tonight as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central Bahamas along a stationary front that extends from 30N58W to 31N61W to low pressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to 28N70W to 26N75W and to 24N80.5W. This setup is inducing widespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft. Gale-force winds to 40 kt prevail north of 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W. Strong to gale winds north of 27N between 61W and 80W will continue through early Mon morning. The portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and across the waters east of northern Florida during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper-level trough over Florida, the northwestern Caribbean and the Bahamas combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Latest model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 06N22N and within 60 nm 10N27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong ridge extends over the eastern United States and into the central Gulf, and is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds across most of the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds across the western Gulf along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds prevail along seas 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into the eastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther east through the early part of the upcoming week. A couple of troughs extend southward from the western Atlantic into the central Caribbean: one along 71W north of 16N, and the other along 76.5W north 16N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between these troughs north of 16N. This activity is being supported by upper-level divergence present east of a broad mid to upper-level trough that covers the western Caribbean. Trades across the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean are of moderate to fresh speeds while northeast to east winds of similar speeds are east of 74W. Seas across the basin are mostly slight to moderate. For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper-level trough will slowly shift eastward through Tue and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward across eastern Cuba to a 1009 mb low north of Jamaica near 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola. A stationary front extends from near 30N58W to 31N61W to low pressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to 28N70W to 26N75W and to 24N80.5W. A trough then extends southward from this low to the Hispaniola adjacent waters. Another trough extends from eastern Cuba to a 1009 mb low just south of eastern Cuba near 19N76W. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N and between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front and along the trough or across many of the offshores north of about of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores high pressure ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands and west of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing. For the forecast west of 55W, a large area of strong to gale- force NE to E winds will continue through near midnight across the western and central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary front extending from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas near 25N78W to the eastern Straits of Florida. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected N of the front between 67W and 74W. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.