Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
066 AXNT20 KNHC 251658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones today through this evening as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central Bahamas along a stationary front extending from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida Straits. This setup is inducing widespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft. Gale- force winds to 40 kt prevail north of 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W according to the latest wind- derived satellite. Strong to gale winds north of 27N between 61W and 80W will prevail today through early Mon morning. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W southwestward to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 25N and east of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and into the central Gulf, supporting fresh to strong winds east of 90W along with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds prevail along seas 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into the eastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther east through the early part of the upcoming week. A broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward across E Cuba to a 1010 mb low NE of Jamaica near 19.5N76W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and ahead of this low under an area of upper level diffluence that covers Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Gust to gale force winds and rough seas are likely within this area of convection between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and south of Hispaniola between 69W and 72.5W. Winds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to fresh from the N while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of 74W. Seas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W and 78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the low pressure. For the forecast, a middle to upper level trough over Florida, the Bahamas and NW Caribbean will shift very slowly eastward through Tue and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extending southward across E Cuba to a 1010 mb low N of Jamaica near 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW Caribbean, will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola. A stationary front extends from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida Straits. Along the front, a 1010 mb low pressure is near 28.5N66W. A surface trough then extends southward from this low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N and between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front and along the trough or across many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands and west of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing. For the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale-force NE to E winds will continue through early tonight, across the western and central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary front extending from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida Straits. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.