Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
517 AXPZ20 KNHC 251640 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.8W, or roughly about 440 nm SW of Acapulco, Mexico at 25/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft or 9 m. Satellite imagery shows Vance is being impacted by strong southwest to westerly shear as the low-level center is appearing to the southwest of the the ongoing convection. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type within 180 nm in the NE semicircle and within 30 nm in the SW semicircle. A northwestward to west- northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north- northwest around midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast the next several days. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible, across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. This swell is likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance continues to support minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across southern Panama and to0 8N78W to 09N88W and to 12.5N95W. It resumes to the SW of Vance at 09N108W, and continues to 06N119W to 08N130W and to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 82W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 92W-95W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 112W-116W and within 30 nm of the trough between 127W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm near 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon morning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near 16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W Wed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears 19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.ntensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon morning, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near 16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W Wed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears 19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California Norte during the early part of the week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region tonight and Wed night and be at gentle to moderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds is located from 14N to 18N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 11N to 15N between 114W and 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters along with moderate seas, except locally rough S of the Equator and E of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm near 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon morning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W Wed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears 19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting this afternoon and into the early part of the upcoming week along with fresh southeast to south winds over the far NW portion of the area. A tightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system will induce fresh to strong to southeast to south winds by early Tue, roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected with these winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south- central waters by the middle of the week, building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 05N between 105W and 125W by late Wed night, lingering through at least Thu night.