Tropical Cyclone Discussion

285
WTPZ42 KNHC 251459
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Sun Oct 25 2026
 
Strong west-southwesterly wind shear is significantly impacting 
Vance this morning. An earlier WSF-M pass indicated that the 
low-level center was located farther southwest than previously 
estimated, and the initial position was adjusted accordingly. Deep 
convection near the mid-level center continues to diminish, leaving 
the partially exposed low-level center displaced to the 
southwest. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates continue to 
decrease and now range from 49-65 kt. The initial intensity is set 
at a potentially generous 65 kt for this advisory.
 
The hurricane is moving north-northwestward around 6 kt between a 
mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and southern Texas and 
a strong, closed upper-level low progressing across the southwestern 
United States. Vance is expected to move toward the northwest or 
west-northwest at a slower forward speed over the next couple of 
days as steering currents weaken. By midweek, Vance is forecast to 
turn toward the north-northwest then north as it weakens and becomes 
increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level flow. The track 
forecast has been shifted to the left from the previous advisory to 
account for the revised initial position and continued leftward 
trends in the global and regional hurricane model guidance. However, 
this track still remains on the eastern edge of the guidance and 
further westward adjustments may be necessary in future forecast 
cycles.
 
Despite moving over slightly warmer waters during the next several 
days, significant southwesterly to westerly wind shear and 
relatively dry mid-level air are expected to lead to gradual 
weakening. The latest NHC forecast now calls for a faster rate of 
weakening through midweek than the previous advisory. By late this 
week, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests 
that Vance may struggle to sustain organized deep convection. The 
forecast now calls for Vance to become post-tropical by 96 h and 
degenerate into a remnant low by 120 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Due to the large uncertainties in both the track and intensity
forecasts, it is too early to determine what, if any, wind and storm
surge impacts Vance could bring to the coast of Mexico. Interests in
southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of
Vance.
 
2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane 
Vance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to 
Jalisco during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding 
and mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and 
Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 14.3N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 14.5N 104.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 15.0N 104.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 15.3N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 18.0N 106.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1200Z 21.4N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW