Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
886 AXNT20 KNHC 251040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones today through this evening as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 25N between 20W-41W, and from 09N to 14N between 56W-61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and into the central Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across most of the E Gulf region, except locally strong E of 86W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail, with locally rough seas offshore NW Florida. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to deepen near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits through early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther east through the early part of the upcoming week. A broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward across E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica near 19N75W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of this low under an area of upper level diffluence that covers Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Gust to gale force winds and rough seas are likely within this area of convection south of Hispaniola between 68W and 75W. Winds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to fresh from the NNW while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of 72W. Seas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W and 78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the low pressure E of Jamaica. For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward through Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. The broad surface trough over the central Bahamas that extends across E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of Jamaica through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh ESE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola. A stationary front extends from near 31N48W to 28N65W. There is a 1013 mb low just E of the central Bahamas while earlier scatt data also showed the presence of a stronger low of 1012 mb south of the front near 26N65W. A surface trough then extends southward from this low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection across the Atlantic offshores, except S of 24N between 55W and 63W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front or across many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands where rough seas are ongoing. For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones today through this evening as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly through Thu.