Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
843 AXNT20 KNHC 250436 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient the northwestern zones into Sun, the result of strong high pressure building southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepening near the Bahamas along a nearly stationary front that extends NE toward Bermuda, will induce widespread gales. NE to E winds of up to 40 kt and very rough seas will prevail for waters N of 27N between 60W and 76W through early Mon as the front remains in place, with conditions only slowly improving through mid-week. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure building into the southeastern United States continues to support fresh to strong NE winds over the NE basin, with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail, with locally rough seas offshore Florida. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits tonight through early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther east through the early part of the upcoming week. A surface trough extends southward from 1013 mb low pressure centered just E of the Bahamas across eastern Cuba and Jamaica. The trough combined with upper-level diffluence east of a mid to upper-level trough axis over the NW Caribbean is support numerous strong convection N of 15N between 71W and 76W, including waters near Haiti and through the Windward Passage. Convection in the SW basin in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough has diurnally waned. Moderate to fresh NE winds encompass the NW Caribbean to the west of the aforementioned surface trough, and moderate to locally fresh trades are present in the eastern basin. Seas are generally moderate, except slight in the SW. The highest seas are in the Yucatan Channel, where heights are estimated to 7 ft. For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward through Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extending southward across Jamaica to 15N77W will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and lead to fresh N to NE winds and building seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola. A stationary front extends from near 31N52W to 29N69W to a 1013 mb low pressure near 26N74W. A surface trough then extends southward from this low across eastern Cuba. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front, and to the east of the surface trough, numerous thunderstorms are noted from the Turks and Caicos southward into the Windward Passage and nearshore waters of Haiti. To the east, another surface trough extends from 27N62W to just north of Dominican Republic. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in association with this feature from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Away from the convection strong S winds are E of the trough from 23N to 27N between 62W and 67W. Farther east, the Azores ridge dominates, providing mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas. Strong winds are funneling through the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight through Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.