Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
042 AXPZ20 KNHC 250313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 13.7N 103.4W at 25/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 33 ft or 10.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Vance is moving slowly toward the north-northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue through Mon. Fluctuations in strength are likely through Mon, followed by steady weakening after that. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during much of next week. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N75W to SE of Vance near 11N98W, then resumes SW of Vance from 07N113W to 05N136W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 92W. Similar convection is noted in a band associated with Vance within 03N117W to 13N110W to 15N101W to 17N101W to 14N94W to 11N95W to 03N117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California, and moderate seas over the remainder of the waters outside the Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec sea conditions. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.2N 103.7W Sun morning, 15.1N 104.2W Sun evening, 15.6N 104.6W Mon morning, 16.1N 104.8W Mon evening, 16.5N 105.0W Tue morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 105.2W Tue evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 105.6W late Wed. Elsewhere, winds are likely to pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of the upcoming week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California going into the early part of the upcoming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse tonight and Sun night in the Papagayo region, then at gentle to moderate speeds afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of fresh northeast winds is located from 13N to 19N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 130W and 136W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Northeast to east winds of gentle to moderate speeds are elsewhere north of about 08N along with seas of 5 to 6 ft mainly due to a long-period north swell. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are south of 08N along with seas of 5 to 6 ft also due to mainly a long-period north swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.2N 103.7W Sun morning, 15.1N 104.2W Sun evening, 15.6N 104.6W Mon morning, 16.1N 104.8W Mon evening, 16.5N 105.0W Tue morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 105.2W Tue evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 105.6W late Wed. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just northwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting Sun afternoon and into early next week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south-central waters by the middle of next week building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 06N between 107W and 130W by late Wed night.