Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
692 AXNT20 KNHC 242342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight into Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold front along 30N moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force northeast to east winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through early on Mon. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall Event in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N35W. It resumes near 09N41W to 10N51W and to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 41W-50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States that extends southwestward toward the central and western Gulf, and a trough that is east of the Bahamas is sustaining moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds basin- wide along with moderate seas, with the exception of slight seas over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure that is forecast to deepen near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits this evening through early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther east through the early part of the upcoming week. A trough extends from a western Atlantic weak low pressure of 1014 mb near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba, and continues to across western Jamaica and to near 15N78W. The combination of this feature with upper-level diffluence east of a mid to upper-level trough that extends from Florida to the northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong convection between Haiti and 14N between 72W and 76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern Caribbean mainly due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough. The gradient along the SE periphery of the Gulf of America high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh north to northeast winds to be over the northwest portion of the basin, including in the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate north winds are within about 60 nm offshore Nicaragua. Latest satellite altimeter data indicates slight seas over the southwestern and northwestern Caribbean. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic subtropical waters. Its related gradient is supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds east of about 75W, where seas are maxing out to around 7 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough will slowly shift eastward through Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southwestward across Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and lead to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain expected for the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. A stationary front extends from near 31N56W to 29N69W and to near 27N75W. Strong to near gale-froce northeast to east winds are north of the boundary along with seas of 9 to 14 ft in northeast swell. A trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba and continues farther south into the western Caribbean. Another trough extends from the low northeastward to near 30N64W. Another trough is analyzed from near 28N60W to 20N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 62W and 73W. To the NE of this broad area of low pressure, a stationary front extends from near 31N59W to 27N74W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high pressure ridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 55W, except locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near Cape Verde. For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight through Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.