Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
764 AXPZ20 KNHC 242302 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Hurricane Vance is centered near 13.3N 103.3W, or about 290 nm S of Acapulco, Mexico at 24/2100 UTC, moving north- northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 34 ft or 10.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that Vance has become less organized since earlier today. Its overall cloud pattern appears rather ragged on satellite imagery, with low-level clouds becoming exposed in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the N semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Vance is forecast to maintain a slow motion toward the north-northwest through Mon. Additional weakening is expected through Sun night. Some re- intensification is possible on Mon. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. This swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent satellite altimeter data pass revealed seas to just under 12 ft about 90 nm downstream of the Gulf, however, given the persistence of these gap winds across a large fetch area, seas of 12 ft are likely very near the swath sampled by the altimeter pass. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of NW Colombia southwestward to across southern Panama, and continues to 08N81W to 07N82W to 11N93.5W and to 12N98W. It resumes well to SW of Vance at 06N114W to 06N120W and to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N between 81W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 06N107W to 05N110W to 04N115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching south to near 17N between 110W and 115W as depicted in a recent satellite scatterometer data pass. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. The latest satellite scatterometer data pass also indicates gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California, and moderate seas over the remainder of the waters outside the Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec sea conditions. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 14.0N 103.6W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.9N 104.0W Sun afternoon, to near 15.6N 104.4W late Sun night, to near 16.0N 104.6W Mon afternoon, to near 16.4N 104.8W late Mon night, and to near 17.0N 104.9W Tue afternoon. Vance is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near Cabo Corrientes at a position close to 18.1N 105.2W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are likely to pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of the upcoming week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California going into the early part of the upcoming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except for slight seas near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse tonight and Sun night in the Papagayo region, then at gentle to moderate speeds afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. High pressure covers the area north of about 19N and west of 120W. A swath of fresh northeast winds is located from 13N to 19N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 130W and 136W as noted in recent satellite scatterometer data passes. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft captured in a recent satellite altimeter data pass and by a few Sofar Spotter buoy observations. Northeast to east winds of gentle to moderate speeds are elsewhere north of about 08N along with seas of 5 to 6 ft mainly due to a long-period north swell. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are south of 08N along with seas of 5 to 6 ft also due to mainly a long-period north swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 14.0N 103.6W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.9N 104.0W Sun afternoon, to near 15.6N 104.4W late Sun night, to near 16.0N 104.6W Mon afternoon, to near 16.4N 104.8W late Mon night, and to near 17.0N 104.9W Tue afternoon. Vance is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near Cabo Corrientes at a position close to 18.1N 105.2W Wed afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just northwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting Sun afternoon and into early next week. A recent satellite scatterometer data pass depicts fresh southeast winds over the northwest portion of the discussion waters while fresh to strong southeast to south winds are just northwest of 30N140W, where the end point of a warm front is located. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south-central waters by the middle of next week building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 06N between 107W and 130W by late Wed night.