Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
208 AXPZ20 KNHC 241539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 12.9N 103.0W, or about 300 nm SW of Acapulco, Mexico at 24/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 35 ft or 11 m. Satellite imagery shows that the appearance of Vance has deteriorated a bit during the past few hours, likely due to the combined effects of colder sea surface temperatures near the center and increasing southwesterly shear. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Vance is forecast to maintain a slow motion toward the north-northwest through the weekend. Gradual weakening is expected through Sun. Some re- intensification will be possible beginning Sun night, or on Mon. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. The swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas as were confirmed by overnight satellite scatterometer data. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across southern Panama, and continues to 08N82W to 07N85W and to 09N94W. It resumes to the SW of Vance at 07N112W to 05N120W to 05N132W and to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N between 85W and 94W, and within 180 nm north of the trough between 130W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W-85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the waters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and moderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to re-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is forecast to move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse to gale-force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds offshore Baja California will linger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly spread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except for slight seas near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas in a northerly swell are from 10N to 20N and west of about 123W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker along with moderate seas away from Vance. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to re-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is forecast to move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds will diminish, and rough seas will subside over the west- central waters during the morning. North swell producing rough seas have begun to propagate to the south of 30N over the north- central waters. However, they are forecast to subside tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south- central waters by the middle of next week building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 06N between 108W and 128W by late Wed night.