Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
312 AXNT20 KNHC 241051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W tonight through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast to weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 10N29W, and resumes from 09N39W to 07N58W. A surface trough is analyzed along 37W from 11N to 20N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 20N between 14W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 40W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over the Gulf waters N of 21N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough E of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds basin-wide along with moderate seas, except slight over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, the tightening of the pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the southern Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits from this evening through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Upper-level diffluent flow over the central basin supports scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean while a surface trough along 78W and the E Pacific monsoon support similar convective activity over the SW Caribbean. With a broad ridge over the Gulf of America, northerly winds have reached moderate speeds in the NW basin W of 83W, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are also offshore Nicaragua. Seas in both the SW and NW Caribbean are slight. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh ESE winds E of 74W where seas are moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun night into Mon. Meanwhile, the broad trough over the central and SW Caribbean will support moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas west of 76W through today, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 76W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect rough seas and large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough extends from 29N67W to a 1012 mb low pres near 23N69W across central Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 31N between 64W and 73W. NE of this broad area of low pressure, a cold front extends from 31N53W to 29N65W. Both the front and a pre- frontal trough are supporting scattered showers N of 24N between 57W and 62W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporing moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 40W, except locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north and west of the broad area of low pressure E of the Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop across the northwestern zones today as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold front moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W early Sun through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.