Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
889 AXPZ20 KNHC 240844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 12.4N 102.8W at 24/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft or 11.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, except 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted within 420 nm in the NE quadrant, elsewhere in a band between 180 nm and 570 nm in the SE semicircle, 90 nm in the W quadrant, and 180 nm elsewhere in the NW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through Sun. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data confirmed these winds. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07N90W to SE of Vance near 09N99W. It resumes SW of Vance at 09N104W to 06N117W to 08N124W to 03N138W. The ITCZ extends from 03N138W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 80W and 94W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the waters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and moderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this afternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon, 15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N 104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse to gale force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California will linger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly spread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas in northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 123W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas away from Vance. For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this afternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon, 15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N 104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds and rough seas over the W-central waters will diminish and subside through the early morning. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters around sunrise today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell will push into the S-central waters by the middle of next week building seas to rough across the waters S of 06N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night.