Tropical Cyclone Discussion
673 WTPZ42 KNHC 240838 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Vance's convective structure has changed little during the past several hours. The eye remains ragged and intermittently obscured by clouds, surrounded by deep convection within the eyewall where cloud-top temperatures are around -75 C. Recent microwave imagery revealed a slight northward tilt of the vortex, reflecting the persistent moderate southerly vertical wind shear. A 0353 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass helped refine the analyzed wind radii. Subjective Dvorak and objective intensity estimates remain in the 90 to 100 kt range. Given these estimates and the relatively steady satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 95 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 335/6 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight as the subtropical ridge weakens in response to a broad mid- to upper-level trough near the West Coast of the United States. The track guidance remains in good agreement through tonight, but Vance's forward speed is expected to decrease as it enters a region of weak steering currents. Considerable cross-track spread develops among the guidance solutions beginning around 36 h, partly due to differences in how well Vance maintains its vertical structure as increasing shear and cooler waters affect the cyclone. A weaker system could be steered more west-northwestward, while a stronger hurricane would be more likely to continue northward. Given the substantial spread, even between the HCCA and GDMI aids after day 3, track forecast confidence remains quite low as Vance approaches the vicinity of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico next week. The NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous prediction, lying near the HCCA and GDMI aids through day 3 and representing an average of these two solutions thereafter. Vance's intensity appears to have leveled off during the past several hours after the hurricane underwent a period of rapid intensification on Friday. Although some fluctuations in strength remain possible today, cooler sea surface temperatures associated with the wakes of recent tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean heat content along portions of Vance's forecast track. These cooler waters, combined with increasing vertical wind shear, should induce a weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through Sunday. The aforementioned differences in the track guidance have also contributed to considerable spread among the intensity solutions, with the possibility of more substantial weakening than currently forecast. Vance could move beyond the cooler waters by 48 h, allowing for a brief period of restrengthening by 60 h. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and possible land interaction should lead to another weakening trend late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous prediction and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.4N 102.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.1N 103.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.3N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.2N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 16.2N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 16.6N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 17.5N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH