Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
034 AXNT20 KNHC 240404 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast to weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 11N25W. The ITCZ extends from 11N25W to 12N32W, and resumes from 11N39W to 11N62W. A surface trough is analyzed along 35W from 10N-20N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 18N and E of 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over the western Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Caribbean is supporting moderate winds, and moderate seas, E of 94W. Gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail W of 94W. For the forecast, the broad ridge will continue supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across most of the Gulf region, except locally strong E of 84W. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, beginning later tonight through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage. A broad trough extends across the central and SW Caribbean, with light winds and slight to moderate seas west of 76W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail E of 76W. For the forecast, the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will prevail through Sun night. Light winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the central and SW Caribbean west of 76W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected east of 76W. Fresh N to NE winds will develop across the western Caribbean, with building seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect rough seas and large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough extends from 29N68W to low pres near 24N72W to 20N74W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 150 nm southeast of the trough and west of 61W. Moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas are west of the trough. Another trough extends from 31N53W to 28N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are within 90 nm east of the trough and N of 29W. Fresh to strong winds are between the Cabo Verde Islands and western Africa, where rough seas are noted. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell across the forecast waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside tonight through early Sat. A tightening pressure gradient will develop across the northwestern zones tonight as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas south of a cold front moving slowly southward into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W early Sun through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.