Tropical Cyclone Discussion
378 WTPZ42 KNHC 240338 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026 Correction: Updated to emphasize that Vance briefly reached major hurricane intensity earlier this evening before weakening to Category 2 strength. Satellite imagery indicates that Vance became better organized earlier this evening, with cloud-top temperatures cooling and deep convection expanding around a warming eye. However, the eye has become less distinct during the past hour or two, with some warming of the cloud tops in the eyewall, possibly due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T5.5/102 kt, although recent objective intensity estimates have trended downward toward 95 kt. Vance briefly reached major hurricane intensity earlier this evening before the recent deterioration in its satellite presentation. Given the recent degradation in satellite presentation and the latest objective estimates, the initial intensity is set at 95 kt. Vance is moving north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as a broad mid- to upper-level trough evolves over the western portion of the United States, weakening the subtropical ridge over Mexico. Although the track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through 24 to 36 h, forecast confidence decreases thereafter as the trough shifts eastward and Vance enters a region of weaker steering currents. Significant cross-track spread persists among the guidance solutions, partly due to differences in how well Vance maintains its vertical structure as increasing shear affects the cyclone. A weaker, more vertically tilted system could be steered farther westward, while a stronger, vertically coupled hurricane would be more likely to continue northward toward the southwestern or west-central coast of Mexico. Given these persistent differences, the NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous, lying close to the HCCA and GDMI aids. Vance may have reached its peak intensity earlier this evening after rapidly intensifying from 60 to 100 kt over the preceding 24 h. Although some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, recent satellite trends suggest that the hurricane may be beginning to feel the effects of a less favorable environment. Cooler sea surface temperatures associated with the wakes of recent tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean heat content along portions of Vance's forecast track. These cooler waters, combined with increasing vertical wind shear, should contribute to a weakening trend during the next day or two. However, the magnitude of weakening remains uncertain and will depend partly on how long Vance remains over the cooler waters. The aforementioned differences in the track guidance have also contributed to considerable spread among the intensity solutions, with the possibility of more substantial weakening than currently forecast. Vance could move beyond the cooler waters after 48 h, allowing for some restrengthening. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and possible land interaction should lead to another weakening trend late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous prediction and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.0N 102.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 12.8N 102.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 13.8N 103.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 14.8N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 16.3N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 16.8N 104.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 18.4N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH