Tropical Cyclone Discussion
629 WTPZ42 KNHC 232040 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026 Vance has become better organized since the last advisory with the formation of a well-defined eye inside the central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 83-104 kt range, and based on these data the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. Although the central features of the hurricane are better defined, the outer banding seen earlier has become fragmented, and arc clouds that suggest the presence of dry air are seen southwest of the CDO. The intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The eye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder sea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat content. This should soon bring the current intensification to a halt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a major hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over the cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly vertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination should cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken more than forecast during this period. After 48 h, Vance should move north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time calls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by the HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and possible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet again. As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of the forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time the center spends over the cold pool. After the westward jog seen earlier today, Vance has resumed a northwestward motion of 325/4 kt. The hurricane is currently being steered by a weak mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico and the eastern Pacific, and later in the forecast period it will come under the influence of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States as well as the adjacent portions of northern Mexico and the northeastern Pacific. While the dynamical models agree on the general synoptic pattern, the track forecast is complicated by the possibilities of how strong and vertically stacked Vance will be. A stronger and more vertically stacked storm, especially as depicted in the GFS, will likely move slowly toward the north-northwest and north during the forecast period. On the other hand, the UKMET and Canadian models forecast Vance to be weaker and shear apart vertically, with the low-level center being steered more to the northwest before eventually turning northward. While the current structure makes such a shearing apart unlikely in the short term, it is possible that Vance could shear apart between 24-48 h if it weakens more than forecast, and at that point it could turn more northwestward. The forecast track leans toward Vance staying vertically coupled, and it is in the best overall agreement with the Google Deepmind ensemble mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.2N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH